GCSE Maths - Edexcel Higher Grade Boundaries Review.

As always, at this time of year, teachers, 16 year old students and their parents wait to see what their GCSE results will be.

In the past experienced teachers would be able to make pretty good estimates of what grade each student would get.  However, as politicians have become more focused on driving up standards (not necessarily a bad thing) it has become more difficult to predict what grade a student will get.

Grade boundaries are on the move.

I have had a look at the last 3 years worth of grade boundaries for Edexcel GCSE Maths (Higher) and there seems to be an interesting picture. 

For each picture below the vertical axis (y-axis) is out of 200 which is the maximum possible mark a student can get across the 2 papers.

Let's see how the grade boundaries have changed over the last 3 years.  The red bar is the mean of the three year's scores.

Grade A*

So, students wishing to get an A* have seen the boundary creep up in past 2 years, with the boundary for 2013 a clear jump above the average needed.

Grade A

As with the grade boundary for A*, the Grade A boundary has also risen in each of the last 2 years with a clear gap between last year's boundary and the overall average.

Grade B

There seems to be a pattern developing here....

As with the boundaries for A* and A, the marks needed to get a B have also steadily increased....

Grade C

And again, the bar is being raised.  Only be a couple of marks this time but it is still creeping up...

Grade D

Interestingly, the picture changes once you hit the boundary for Grade D.  This has remained very constant over the past 3 years.

Grade E

And to finish off the boundary for a Grade E has been going down!

So what does this all mean?

In all honesty, I'm not sure.

There are a few theories that could be applied here.

1.  If exam papers were getting easier, and I don't think they are, then the grade boundaries should rise to ensure consistency in performance from year to year.  E.g. if you got a B in 2011 you had to score more marks to get a B in 2012 as the paper was easier.  That seems fair to me.

However, if the papers are getting easier, why are the grade boundaries for D and E going downwards?  This would mean that someone who got an E in 2011, would be getting a D in 2012.  That isn't fair!

2.  Maybe, the difficulty of exam papers is remaining at a similar level year on year.  If this is the case then standards are rising for the grades of A* - C e.g. it is harder to get these grades.  Again, this doesn't explain why the boundaries for grades D and E are going down.

3.  Maybe the answer to this is a politicians answer in that the papers are getting harder and easier at the same time.  Let me try and explain.  Maybe the questions aimed at examining grades A*-C have become more demanding.  This would raise standards.  At the same time, Edexcel do not want to have large numbers of students failing their course so have built in a safety net?  Maybe the politicians just want to raise the standards of students studying for a C or above and are not so concerned with weaker students.....

So, what does this tell us about this year's grade boundaries?

Nothing for certain.  I thought the papers were harder than in previous years which, if standards are to remain the same, should result in slightly lower grade boundaries.  The Higher boundaries are fairly consistent and do follow some type of pattern.  The Foundation boundaries, which will be my next post, are far more variable.

I hope this year's boundaries are set with a bit of thought.

How the reduction in entries, from schools not entering Yr 10 students for early entry, will effect the grade boundaries will be fascinating. 

Although, am I alone in thinking it shouldn't make any difference at all?

If I am a Year 11 student desperate for a grade B, and I think I might have just scraped it, how does whether the Year 10's in my school have been entered for the exam affect my maths ability and my attainment level?

Interesting days ahead.

I will be updating my bar charts after Result's Day!