2014 Maths Levels of progress (KS2 to GCSE)

National Levels of Progress – GCSE Maths 2014

So, it is that time of year again.

Each year, around late October early November, the proportion of students making 3+ and 4+ levels of progress nationally are released and schools are able to analyse how their old Year 11 students have done compared with national averages.  Whilst statistics can never tell you the whole story the data can often offer up questions that benefit future cohorts of students if schools take time to answer them seriously.

The official figures haven’t been released yet but they have been freely available on twitter for several days now.

So, what are they?

Well, as always in education there isn’t a simple answer.  This year’s performance tables will report the attainment of student’s first attempt after November 2013 provided it is better, or the same as any attainment taken before November 2013.  You may remember that Mr Gove decided that only a student’s first attempt should count in performance tables but introduced this after many students had already taken their first attempt at GCSE maths at the end of their year 10.  Thus, there was a bit of a fudge this year.

But, here are the levels of progress for student’s first attempt as explained above.

2014 Maths Levels of Progress

Level 5 – 83%  (81% in 2013)

Level 4 – 64%  (75% in 2013)

Level 3 – 26%  (44% in 2013)

Those of you with a good memory will recall that Ofsted, most of the right wing press, heads of Grammar schools etc. decried the use of early entry as it hindered the attainment of students.  

Apparently, students achieved a C in Maths and didn’t improve upon it.  Well, whilst this might well have been a nice philosophical position to take this year’s results have blown that out of the water.

At Level 5, there has been little change.  The vast majority of students make 3 or more levels of progress.  It is nice to see consistency from year to year.

But, at level 4, there is an 11 percentage point drop.  2014 was not a good year to be 16 and a level 4 student on entry.  Aside from all the politics, this is the really sad indictment of the current education policy.  There are thousands of students now in Year 12, who had they been a year older, would have attained a C in maths and now be studying their chosen course.  Due to political interfering, these students, who would have got a C in 2013, attained a D in 2014. 

Additionally, level 3 students have also had a raw deal.  The percentage of these students who made 3 levels of progress dropped by 18 percentage points. 

Can anyone explain to me, let alone the students, how this can possibly be fair?

I’m all for standards and expectations to rise but please do it at the start of the course, not 6 months from the end.

Finally, the “best” level of progress data is also available.  This data ignores how many times the student has taken the exam and just looks for their best grade.  Again, the figures are low.

Best attainment  for levels of progress.

Level 5 – 86%

Level 4 – 68%

Level 3 – 28%

So, what has caused this significant drop in attainment?

Well, there is a one in a million chance that this year group was particularly weak academically.  We all know that this isn’t true.  Individual schools might get weaker and stronger cohorts but the national picture should remain constant.

The government might want to run down the GCSE so that the new GCSE coming in can be welcomed by teachers.  But, the new GCSE is already coming in so they have won that argument.

The only logical answer is that the government refused to listen to those of us who warned of the unintended consequences of the removal of their early entry policy.  By removing entries from most schools (I believe the number of students entered early this year dropped by 90%) the raw scores in the exam became highly skewed, panic followed and grade boundaries were set broadly in line with previous years.

Let me try and explain what happened.

Imagine there are only 10 bog standard comprehensives in the country and for some reason they have only ever entered their top and bottom set for GCSE Maths.

For those of you not paying full attention the “top set” represents Year 11 students and the “bottom set” represents the Year 10 students.

Year after year they do this and the C+% sits at 60%.

One year all the schools decide to only enter their top set e.g. Year 10 aren’t entered.  The government decides to keep the C+% at 60%.  There will be a lot of upset students at the bottom end of the top set.

In a nutshell, this is what has happened.

Not fair is it…..

Edexcel GCSE Foundation Grade Boundaries (Updated 2014)

Here are the historic grade boundaries for the past few years for the GCSE Maths Edexcel Foundation course.

The y-axis is out of 200 which is the maximum score you can have over the two papers.

.
Grade C

A tiny drop on last year but still significantly above the average.  I think it is becoming more and more accepted that students who are capable of a C should be entered for the Higher paper.  Trying to achieve 70%+ on the Foundation paper gives you very little wriggle room in you make an error or two or come across a topic you haven't studied.

Grade D

 Just like the grade boundaries on the Higher tier, this grade boundary is still creeping upwards and is way above its average.  I don't know about you but I haven't noticed that the papers have been getting easier...

Grade E

And the pattern continues...another step upwards...

Grade F

Another jump...but wait until you see Grade G....

Grade G

Staggering...a jump of over 10%.  How does this grade boundary jump by so much?

I have to admit that I am starting to lose faith in Edexcel and their ability to maintain standards.

What do you think?

Updated Edexcel Maths Higher Grade Boundaries (June 2014)

So, the waiting is finally over and we now have the June 2014 results.

In a previous blog I looked at the historic grade boundaries for Edexcel's Maths GCSE.  Today, I have updated them.  Each y-axis has a range of 20 marks (10% of the total grade).  The y-axis goes 10 marks below the 4 year mean and 10 marks above the 4 year mean.

Take a look...

Grade A*

One of the few boundaries at Higher to remain consistent which is nice to see.

Grade A

Certainly an upward trend here......

Grade B

More upward mobility here....


Grade C

Again, another jump....

Grade D

Not much change but still slightly upwards...

Grade E

A slight step upwards....

So, what does this tell us?

Well, Grades A, B, C and D had a boundary above their 4 year average and the A* was higher than last year as was Grade E.

My own personal opinion is that the paper was a little harder than previous years so it seems to be getting harder to get one of the top grades.

Although, this is the first year where the results don't contain a large number of Year 10 students.  Logically, the Year 10 students would have scored lower marks than their Year 11 counterparts thus pulling the grade boundaries down if a similar percentage of students are to get a C+ each year.

(E.g. if 100 students took the exam and 30 of them are Year 10 students you would expect them to score lower marks than similar students to them in Year 11.  If 60% of students are to get a C+ then having Yr 10 students in the mix helps you get in the top 60%.  When the 30 Year 10 students are no longer entered you need to get in the top 60% of 70 Year 11 students rather than the top 60% of 100 Yr 10 and 11 students. )

I'd be fascinated to hear your views on this and see how your schools did.

I wonder what next year's boundaries will bring...

GCSE Foundation (Edexcel) Historic Grade Boundaries for Maths.

Recently, I posted a blog on how the Edexcel Grade Boundaries (Maths GCSE)  for the last 3 years have changed.   It can be found here....

GCSE Higher (Edexcel) Historic Grade boundaries.

This time I have taken a look at how the Foundation grade boundaries have changed in the past 3 years.  The y-axis (the vertical axis) is out of 200 which is the maximum mark attainable across the 2 papers.

Essentially, there is a very clear pattern.  Grade boundaries have been on an upward path for the past 3 years and last year's jump was phenomenal.  It is becoming very difficult for anyone to forecast what students will get this year.

Anyway, take a look and let me know what you think.

Grade C

As many of us will know, there was a massive jump in the C grade boundary last year....

Grade D.

Hmmmm...there seems to be a pattern developing here already.


Grade E.

So, the third grade in a row suffers a huge jump in grade boundary and is far above the 3 year average.

Grade F

The pattern continues...

Grade G

Any surprises!


So, the grade boundaries have been getting higher and jumped massively in 2013.  This does make it particularly difficult for anyone (students, teachers or parents) to know where they are going to be set this year.  Logically, they can't go too much higher as there is a ceiling!

I keep coming back to the conclusion that the government will not want GCSE attainment to drop in the run up to an election and Gove wouldn't have been moved if Cameron was delighted with what was going on.

Add in to this that I thought the 2014 papers were more challenging than in previous years and the grade boundaries have to come down.....don't they?

Can the grade boundaries go much higher this year?  We will find out in a couple of weeks time...

The charts will be updated as quickly as possible.

GCSE Maths - Edexcel Higher Grade Boundaries Review.

As always, at this time of year, teachers, 16 year old students and their parents wait to see what their GCSE results will be.

In the past experienced teachers would be able to make pretty good estimates of what grade each student would get.  However, as politicians have become more focused on driving up standards (not necessarily a bad thing) it has become more difficult to predict what grade a student will get.

Grade boundaries are on the move.

I have had a look at the last 3 years worth of grade boundaries for Edexcel GCSE Maths (Higher) and there seems to be an interesting picture. 

For each picture below the vertical axis (y-axis) is out of 200 which is the maximum possible mark a student can get across the 2 papers.

Let's see how the grade boundaries have changed over the last 3 years.  The red bar is the mean of the three year's scores.

Grade A*

So, students wishing to get an A* have seen the boundary creep up in past 2 years, with the boundary for 2013 a clear jump above the average needed.

Grade A

As with the grade boundary for A*, the Grade A boundary has also risen in each of the last 2 years with a clear gap between last year's boundary and the overall average.

Grade B

There seems to be a pattern developing here....

As with the boundaries for A* and A, the marks needed to get a B have also steadily increased....

Grade C

And again, the bar is being raised.  Only be a couple of marks this time but it is still creeping up...

Grade D

Interestingly, the picture changes once you hit the boundary for Grade D.  This has remained very constant over the past 3 years.

Grade E

And to finish off the boundary for a Grade E has been going down!

So what does this all mean?

In all honesty, I'm not sure.

There are a few theories that could be applied here.

1.  If exam papers were getting easier, and I don't think they are, then the grade boundaries should rise to ensure consistency in performance from year to year.  E.g. if you got a B in 2011 you had to score more marks to get a B in 2012 as the paper was easier.  That seems fair to me.

However, if the papers are getting easier, why are the grade boundaries for D and E going downwards?  This would mean that someone who got an E in 2011, would be getting a D in 2012.  That isn't fair!

2.  Maybe, the difficulty of exam papers is remaining at a similar level year on year.  If this is the case then standards are rising for the grades of A* - C e.g. it is harder to get these grades.  Again, this doesn't explain why the boundaries for grades D and E are going down.

3.  Maybe the answer to this is a politicians answer in that the papers are getting harder and easier at the same time.  Let me try and explain.  Maybe the questions aimed at examining grades A*-C have become more demanding.  This would raise standards.  At the same time, Edexcel do not want to have large numbers of students failing their course so have built in a safety net?  Maybe the politicians just want to raise the standards of students studying for a C or above and are not so concerned with weaker students.....

So, what does this tell us about this year's grade boundaries?

Nothing for certain.  I thought the papers were harder than in previous years which, if standards are to remain the same, should result in slightly lower grade boundaries.  The Higher boundaries are fairly consistent and do follow some type of pattern.  The Foundation boundaries, which will be my next post, are far more variable.

I hope this year's boundaries are set with a bit of thought.

How the reduction in entries, from schools not entering Yr 10 students for early entry, will effect the grade boundaries will be fascinating. 

Although, am I alone in thinking it shouldn't make any difference at all?

If I am a Year 11 student desperate for a grade B, and I think I might have just scraped it, how does whether the Year 10's in my school have been entered for the exam affect my maths ability and my attainment level?

Interesting days ahead.

I will be updating my bar charts after Result's Day!

Top 5 Maths Twitter Accounts we should all be following.

With the holidays in full flow I thought I would do a bit of research and list my top 5 maths twitter accounts that both students and staff should be following.

So, here we go….

Firstly, an honourable mention to NCETM.   It doesn’t make the top 5 as it is probably only suited to the CPD of teachers, rather than of interest to students, but nevertheless, it is one to be following.

We all know that continuing to improve our ability to teach is vital and following an account that has a heavy focus on Maths CPD is a no-brainer.  This account has a great community of skilled professionals working together for a common cause.  I particularly like the resources and support given for maths that is simply intriguing …rather than flogging topics that are going to be in the exams.  Keep it up!

So, my top 5....

5th  ASAPMaths

This is a teacher resource friendly yet fairly new twitter account.  Lots of regular and targeted resources seem to come out during the academic year to help students get a “C” or “A*” at GCSE and, brilliantly, the answers are provided!  Another area to keep an eye on is their “You Tube” channel which is starting to cover specific topics and past papers in a friendly way.

4th.  CorbettMaths

Another twitter account with excellent, and free, resources available.  This account is currently focused on giving students daily practise to ensure they keep their knowledge up to date.  For no other reason, this is a great account to follow.  The Corbettmaths website is linked to this twitter account with helpful and graded videos on a wide range of topics that students should find very helpful.

3rd.  Mr Barton Maths

A close call whether this should have been in 2^nd place or not but Mr Barton has just been edged out into 3^rd!  A truly outstanding twitter account and website is available.  His knowledge of Autograph is especially welcome and his role as a TES maths advisor means that there are lots of links to other helpful resources and people should you need them.  Most impressively, his twitter feed contains links to whole lesson plans and resources should you be needing a starting point for those topics that are tricky to teach.

2nd.  Just Maths  and  Revise Just Maths

Two accounts for the price of one!

This is an established and thriving community of people who regularly engage with the issues of the day.  In addition, Just Maths produces outstanding resources and is always ready to help with questions or queries any student or teacher may have.  They also have a great website linked in but some parts of the website do require a paid subscription to access.  The only reason this isn’t number 1 is because there is, currently, no KS5 stuff available…but I’m sure they are on it!

1st.   Hegarty Maths

A truly fantastic and supportive account that ticks all the boxes.  A brilliant "You Tube" channel is hailed as being absolutely vital by student after student after student.  His fascination with “growth mindsets” and “technology” means you are missing out if you are not following this one.  

Make sure you are following all of these to get September off to a flying start!

GCSE grade boundaries to be lowered?

So, further to my post a couple of days ago it seems that changes to the grade boundaries are afoot.

GCSE Grade boundaries to be lowered?

The Times is reporting the lowering of grade boundaries to avoid the "Gove effect".  Essentially, Gove appears to have insisted upon harder exams this year to reduce the number of students getting each grade to ensure the best students are highlighted.

Whilst an admirable philosophy - students should certainly have to earn the top grades - this was always going to put him at odds with secondary teachers and schools who are rigorously judged by the amount of progress students make.

It wouldn't do, especially with an election on the horizon, for schools to see their results drop and the inquiring face of Ofsted to appear to annoy everyone...Did Gove really want to be the first Secretary of State for Education to see results go down?

So, just maybe, Gove is going to have the absolute opposite effect of what he intended as grade boundaries are lowered to ensure standards don't drop....

The writers of "Yes Minister" would be proud...