A Level and GCSE Maths exam results variability.

The BBC  is reporting of a warning to schools regarding this year’s forthcoming A Level and GCSE results.  However, on closer scrutiny, it is difficult to figure out what the warning actually is....

It seems that there are rumblings of great variations in results this year.  Greater variations of what though?  Greater variations between teacher prediction and actual attainment?  Greater variations between school’s expected and historical results and what they attain this year?  Or greater variation of student attainment across the subjects they have taken….or all three?

To muddy the waters more there is further contradiction.  Glenys Stacey (Chief regulator for Ofqual) says that standards would be “held steady”.  To me, this means that a student who got a “C” last year should get a “C” this year.  But, where is the variation in that?  Encouragingly, Stacey then goes onto say, “Overall, results are likely to look different because of the difference in entry patterns”.

The only difference in entry patterns is that many schools have cancelled their plans to enter Yr 10 students for the GCSE exam as it was claimed by some (principally Ofsted and Ofqual), though I never agreed with it, that entering students early for their maths exam did not result in greater attainment by the end of Yr 11.

So, following Ofqual and Ofsted’s logic, reducing the number of Yr 10 students sitting the exam should result in higher attainment for those in Year 11 this summer – especially as most Yr 11 students will not have been “damaged” by the historical early entry opportunities of the November, January and March sittings. 

But every teacher knows that would be a foolish and dangerous assumption.

Confused?  So am I.

And as the countdown to the results continues, us teachers wait for the traditional shrieks of joy and tears of despair, knowing that we too are receiving our judgement.