2014 Maths Levels of progress (KS2 to GCSE)

National Levels of Progress – GCSE Maths 2014

So, it is that time of year again.

Each year, around late October early November, the proportion of students making 3+ and 4+ levels of progress nationally are released and schools are able to analyse how their old Year 11 students have done compared with national averages.  Whilst statistics can never tell you the whole story the data can often offer up questions that benefit future cohorts of students if schools take time to answer them seriously.

The official figures haven’t been released yet but they have been freely available on twitter for several days now.

So, what are they?

Well, as always in education there isn’t a simple answer.  This year’s performance tables will report the attainment of student’s first attempt after November 2013 provided it is better, or the same as any attainment taken before November 2013.  You may remember that Mr Gove decided that only a student’s first attempt should count in performance tables but introduced this after many students had already taken their first attempt at GCSE maths at the end of their year 10.  Thus, there was a bit of a fudge this year.

But, here are the levels of progress for student’s first attempt as explained above.

2014 Maths Levels of Progress

Level 5 – 83%  (81% in 2013)

Level 4 – 64%  (75% in 2013)

Level 3 – 26%  (44% in 2013)

Those of you with a good memory will recall that Ofsted, most of the right wing press, heads of Grammar schools etc. decried the use of early entry as it hindered the attainment of students.  

Apparently, students achieved a C in Maths and didn’t improve upon it.  Well, whilst this might well have been a nice philosophical position to take this year’s results have blown that out of the water.

At Level 5, there has been little change.  The vast majority of students make 3 or more levels of progress.  It is nice to see consistency from year to year.

But, at level 4, there is an 11 percentage point drop.  2014 was not a good year to be 16 and a level 4 student on entry.  Aside from all the politics, this is the really sad indictment of the current education policy.  There are thousands of students now in Year 12, who had they been a year older, would have attained a C in maths and now be studying their chosen course.  Due to political interfering, these students, who would have got a C in 2013, attained a D in 2014. 

Additionally, level 3 students have also had a raw deal.  The percentage of these students who made 3 levels of progress dropped by 18 percentage points. 

Can anyone explain to me, let alone the students, how this can possibly be fair?

I’m all for standards and expectations to rise but please do it at the start of the course, not 6 months from the end.

Finally, the “best” level of progress data is also available.  This data ignores how many times the student has taken the exam and just looks for their best grade.  Again, the figures are low.

Best attainment  for levels of progress.

Level 5 – 86%

Level 4 – 68%

Level 3 – 28%

So, what has caused this significant drop in attainment?

Well, there is a one in a million chance that this year group was particularly weak academically.  We all know that this isn’t true.  Individual schools might get weaker and stronger cohorts but the national picture should remain constant.

The government might want to run down the GCSE so that the new GCSE coming in can be welcomed by teachers.  But, the new GCSE is already coming in so they have won that argument.

The only logical answer is that the government refused to listen to those of us who warned of the unintended consequences of the removal of their early entry policy.  By removing entries from most schools (I believe the number of students entered early this year dropped by 90%) the raw scores in the exam became highly skewed, panic followed and grade boundaries were set broadly in line with previous years.

Let me try and explain what happened.

Imagine there are only 10 bog standard comprehensives in the country and for some reason they have only ever entered their top and bottom set for GCSE Maths.

For those of you not paying full attention the “top set” represents Year 11 students and the “bottom set” represents the Year 10 students.

Year after year they do this and the C+% sits at 60%.

One year all the schools decide to only enter their top set e.g. Year 10 aren’t entered.  The government decides to keep the C+% at 60%.  There will be a lot of upset students at the bottom end of the top set.

In a nutshell, this is what has happened.

Not fair is it…..